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Fourth time’s the charm for Hamilton and Winnipeg

Adam Markowitz, SBR Forum • August 13, 2010 • Comments (0)

If the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tiger-Cats haven’t figured each other out by now, they never will.

It isn’t often that two teams end up playing each other four times in the span of two months, but that’s what is happening for the Tiger-Cats and the Blue Bombers as they are to meet at Canad Inns Stadium on Friday the 13th.

This is already the fourth time Hamilton and Winnipeg have met.

The good news for both of these teams is that they would both be in the playoffs if they started today. The bad news is that they only have a combined four wins, just one of which has come against another team in the CFL.

So far in 2010, the home teams have ruled the day. The Bombers opened up the season with a shocking 49-29 upset of the Tabbies at home. Since then, Hamilton has won 28-7 and 29-22 at home.

The winning team will move a game ahead of the other. Should the Tiger-Cats spring the mild upset, they will have won the season series and the tiebreaker, effectively giving them a game and a half lead on Winnipeg for the last playoff spot in the East Division. The loser will drop back into the gutter in the division and be fighting for a crossover postseason spot.

Hamilton is still having major problems with its ground attack, which is putting all sorts of pressure on quarterback Kevin Glenn and the passing game. Glenn has thrown the second most passes in the CFL with 218, and he is second in the league in yardage with 1,886. Throwing 11 touchdowns against four picks is good for a 101.2 quarterback rating, the second highest amongst starters in the CFL.

Glenn would be nowhere without the play of receiver Arland Bruce III, though. Bruce is simply on fire right now. He leads the CFL by a country mile in receptions (43) and yards (680) and his four touchdown grabs puts him just one off of the league lead. Last week, Bruce had 11 catches for 197 yards and a touchdown. Two weeks ago, he went for 272 yards and two touchdowns on 16 catches. Three of his six games have resulted in at least seven catches and at least 100 receiving yards.

As for that woeful running game, changes may need to be made. DeAndra’ Cobb has only rushed for 249 yards this year, putting him at dead last in the league for starting running backs and just barely in front of some of the quarterbacks. Cobb’s 4.0 yard per carrry average remains the worst in the CFL.

On the other side of the ball, the Bombers are going to be facing a defence which has allowed the second most points in the East Division. This could be the week that quarterback Buck Pierce comes back to the lineup after a brief absence. Statistically speaking, both Pierce and reserve quarterback Steven Jyles have comparable numbers, which could make for some controversy should the incumbent come back into the lineup and struggle.

Regardless of who is under center, running back Fred Reid is going to be a focal point for the offence. Reid is averaging 6.6 YPC this year, the second best in the CFL amongst running backs, and even though he has just two TD runs, his 451 yards on the ground is fourth in the league.

The Bombers have only picked off five passes all season long, which could provide a bit of a challenge against a solid Hamilton aerial assault.

The victory both SU and ATS for Hamilton moved it to 3-1-0 in both categories over the last four games with the Blue Bombers.

However, the trend to take note of might just be the ‘under.’ Bettors taking the low side of the CFL betting total are 11-4-0 in Winnipeg’s last 15 games played in the month of August and is 24-8-0 in its last 32 games played on Friday nights.

For Hamilton, the ‘under’ has also been golden, as it is 39-15-1 in its last 55 Friday games. Since the opening game of the year between these teams, both duels have stayed ‘under’ the number.